The Lord Of The Rings Trilogy Film Studies Essay

The Lord Of The Rings Trilogy Film Studies Essay The world of fantasy is a part of every childs being. From fairies to dragons, from wizards to goblins, the mind has never ceased to wander. As a young boy I took to this imaginary world heartily, and I continue to do so till date. Hence, I was not surprised when I found myself leaning towards The Lord of the Rings as my topic for this paper. The Fellowship of the Ring, The Two Towers and The Return of the King, represented in the set of books known as The Lord of the Rings was written by the most popular author in history. (White 6) The man that gave us Middle-earth, the territory of Sauron, Gandalf the Grey and Frodo Baggins of the Shire is none other than Professor John Ronald Reuel Tolkien (1892-1973). I am studying The Lord of the Rings trilogy to help understand what it has contributed to the film fraternity and the literary world. Clearly, I have been a Tolkien fan ever since I laid my hands on the first book of this epic trilogy. The reason I have chosen to study this is because I would like to try to unlock how a fictional epic saga like The Lord of the Rings can influence both these fields on a global scale. I realized soon enough that this would be a challenge, but after reading several literary texts by different academicians I was determined to give it a shot. J. R. R. Tolkien is known the world over primarily for his achievements as a writer of fantasy and the creator of The Lord of the Rings. Peter Jackson (1961), on the other hand, who is a writer, producer, actor and screenwriter, has been involved in projects other than fantasy which have also won him praise. However, it was Jacksons transformation of a trio of books into a trio of films that won him significant appraisal. The journey of this transformation began in 1998. Jackson reveals that most fans of The Lord of the Rings were probably not familiar with his earlier works and may have the impression that he popped out of nowhere and was suddenly directing this huge movie-project. (Sibley vii) While researching on this topic I have gathered that most of his colleagues think of his original vision as his greatest asset. Having watched a few of Jacksons other films I can say that he has a determination to showcase even an ordinary story in a very extraordinary way. As mentioned in Studying the Event Film: The Lord of the Rings, Jackson first mentions to Miramax of his interest in The Lord of the Rings in 1995. By July of 1998 Miramax decides to make one film out of The Lord of the Rings after which Jackson goes on to find New Line who agrees on a three part film. Shooting for the movie starts the following year, and by the end of 2003 Tolkiens most popular The Lord of the Rings is made available to the film audience in totality. (Margolis et al xix-xx) Jackson took to Tolkiens Middle-earth, in all its glamour, very passionately, even obsessively. He says that this was mainly the reason behind why Jackson kept pushing his filmmaking skills to a level high enough to direct such an epic drama. His goal was to make Middle-earth look like it was shot on location (Mathijs and Pomerance 2). As told to Sibley, Jackson confessed that it took him around ten years of making films and learning enough about film politics to give him the skill base he needed to tackle this particular project, apart from the twenty years working on amateur projects. (viii) Tolkiens The Lord of the Rings was the longest work of Fantasy ever published. (White 89) He began developing The Fellowship of the Ring soon after The Hobbit in 1937, but it was not until 1954 that he published this first part of The Lord of the Rings. Here, Frodo Baggins, the hobbit, sets out on his quest to destroy the all-powerful One Ring with wizard Gandalf the Grey as his guide, along with a protective fellowship drawn from various Middle-earth races. The book took the world by storm and had people from all age groups spellbound. In the Foreward section of this first book Tolkien writes, Those who had asked for more information about Hobbits eventually got it, but they had to wait a long time; for the composition of The Lord of the Rings went on at intervals during the years 1936 to 1949, a period in which I had many duties that I did not neglect and many other interests as a learner and teacher that often absorbed me. (5) White expresses this development as a transition from a vague sequel into an independent and full-blown creation in which, he says, the effort was packed with delays and retrogressive decisions (171). The second book in The Lord of the Rings series, The Two Towers, was also published in 1954, a few months after the first. The tale continues with how each member of the fellowship fared after the breaking of their fellowship, until the coming of the great Darkness and the outbreak of the War of the Ring (Tolkien 10). The third and last part of the series was named The Return of the King which was first published in October, 1955. It is quite possible that Tolkien thought this name appropriate since the saga ends with Aragorn ruling over Gondor, rightfully crowning him King. Tolkien ends this grand narrative with good winning over evil, revealing the opposing strategies of Gandalf and Sauron (The Dark Lord of Mordor), until the final catastrophe and the end of the great darkness. (Tolkien 13) The concept of Middle-earth is one of awe. Being a philologist and a Professor of Anglo-Saxon at Oxford University J. R. R. Tolkien had extensive knowledge of languages, ancient cultures and mythology. His imaginative mind led him to create the world of Middle-earth which would ultimately help launch the science fiction and fantasy cultural revolution that has swept western civilization since the 1960s. (Martinez) In his article, The World of Middle Earth, Martinez writes that the name Middle-earth is itself an ancient archaic name for the world of Men. This world created by Tolkien was as real and complex as our own. Tolkien wanted to make his imaginary world so convincing that the reader could believe in it so much as to believe it as actual history. For this reason he involved himself in map-making, creating endless charts marking dates and events, and even went to the extent of creating his many invented languages. (Foster 1) He carefully manifested a framework of familiar geography and climate, beasts and birds enabling the reader to walk through any Middle-earth landscape with a security of recognition that woos him on to believe in everything that happens. (Kocher 2) So much was his dedication for perfecting familiarity that Tolkien took the trouble of naming heavenly bodies such as the Great Bear as The Sickle, and planet Mars as Red Borgil. (Kocher 7) For instance, if we were to take the hobbits into consideration, the prologue of The Lord of the Rings informs the reader that they are our distant relatives even though the exact nature of this blood kingship is lost in time. Middle-earth, the land of hobbits, men and manlike creatures, among many others, is our Earth as it was long ago. The Shire has been described as a small but beautiful and fruitful land, beloved by its inhabitants (the hobbits), where an extensive agricultural system thrives avoiding the ruthless ways of an industrial economy. Kocher compares the Shire, which is on the North-West of the Old World, to northwestern Europe primarily because of its climate and skies, and farmland and valleys. (4) Irrespective of whether one is a fantasy genre fan or not, no one can deny that Tolkien is Hobbit forming'. (White 224) I first read The Fellowship of the Ring at age fifteen, and I have unknowingly read all the three volumes several times. With every read of Tolkiens The Lord of the Rings I find myself more deeply involved in his mythopoesis (Hart and Khovacs 26), a term often defined as literary myth. This mythopoeia, according to Tolkien, is easiest to attain using the fantasy/fairy tale (Hart and Khovacs 38) genre. The Lord of the Rings was readily adopted by the hippies in the 1960s. If one delves into this further one can observe that it is not difficult to see how Tolkien had a major influence on them. As White writes, It is set in an alternative reality in which orthodox religion plays no part, where magic makes things happen. (224) This book had a publicity and attraction beyond hippies. It was read by people from all age brackets, from all parts of the world, and from different cultural backgrounds. Today, if one were to type the words Tolkien or The Lord of the Rings into a search engine, at least half a million sites would be displayed. Therefore, it is no surprise that Tolkiens fantasy has spawned host of imitators. Soon after The Lord of the Rings was made available to the world, Tolkien found himself at the centre of all things media, as a cult figure; he was somewhat of a guru. He received appreciation from world famous personalities including Members of Parliament. White notes that even though Tolkien was delighted by the popularity of his work he was more than a little disturbed by the reactions of some of his readers. He was stunned to hear that a ten year old boy who played Frodo in a dramatization of The Lord of the Rings could not come out of character for a month. (225) Jacksons film version of this classic series has also held wide acclaim in both, the popular and the academic eye. As Kellner states, The Lord of the Rings trilogy has been the most popular, acclaimed, and fetishized film cycle of the Third Millennium and has intensified and expanded Tolkien readership for the novels that are the basis of the cinematic epic, while generating a devoted following for the films. (Mathijs and Pomerance 17) Digital technology is at the heart of The Lord of the Rings, and it was this technological advancement that was a major factor in its success. As mentioned in Studying the Event Film: The Lord of the Rings, various software developments such as the FastSCAN technology and Massive (Multiple Agent Simulation System in Virtual Environment) have made it easier to produce films on the scale of The Lord of the Rings. (3) Almost as soon as Jackson released The Fellowship of the Ring, gaming companies released high graphic video games based on the film. Posters, DVDs, music CDs, toys and such sold extensively. Even the New Zealand government, once it got on board The Lord of the Rings project, was determined to lever as much economic benefit as possible from its investment. (Margolis et al 10) For example, Air New Zealand painted various characters from the films on their planes and New Zealand Post issued both international and domestic stamps depicting places as they appeared in the films. (Margolis et al 10) Not only is The Lord of the Rings an entertainment marvel, it is also being taught as a subject in universities all around the world. I, for one, have selected The Lord of the Rings as my academic paper. There are endless books, articles, journals and online databases devoted to this topic. Given the bubbling global fan discourse and the pervasive conviction that Jackson has accomplished something magnificent and significant, it is not a surprise that much of The Lord of the Rings has become the subject of academic literary criticism. National Geographic has made an attempt to link The Lord of the Rings to American frontier mythology and to presidents like Franklin Delano Roosevelt. As Mathijs and Pomerance have noted, an academic discussion list for a selected group of cultural studies scholars consisted of all things gendered, ethnic, classed, religious, ideological and methodological in reading the trilogy. (3-4) As mentioned earlier, Tolkien wanted to associate his fantasy world with our own. For this purpose, it has led me to believe that those that write about The Lord of the Rings books and/or films attempt to make a connection between The Lord of the Rings and world events. In recent times links have also been made between The Lord of the Rings film texts and contemporary political concerns like totalitarianism, family, ecology, technology, patriarchy, and war and terror. (Mathijs and Pomerance 7) A quick browsing through of such articles/journals will lead you to see this link; a departure from a world based on craftsmanship, and an eco-friendly environment, to a world based on high technology procedures, industrial pollution, and new divisions of labour and corrupt governments. As Isaacs writes, Tolkiens popularity was not fostered by the mass media; it grew from appeals of his work itself and was simply reported in the media. His work did not involve any promotion, nor was there a critical bandwagon either. (1) The initial reviewers were full of praise but they also had a lot of contradictions and questions, specifically about genre. Over the years subsequent reviewers kept the praises coming and began answering some of the questions. I would think that answering some of the basic questions would help understand Tolkiens take on matters such as genre, influences, relationships, and the like. Humphrey Carpenter reveals that Tolkien regarded himself as a discoverer of legend and not as an inventor of story. (Nitzsche 1) Selling over a 100 million copies worldwide (à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦..) The Lord of the Rings volume is still strongly demanded in the market. However, some critics have been very vocal to dismiss this volume as balderdash, juvenile trash' (Shippey 307) and confidently stated that this is not a work which many adults will read more than once. Jackson too has had both positive and negative responses to his trilogy. Andrew OHehir says that, Tolkiens mournful, melancholic tone was captured with authoritative vigour in the films. He translated the best-loved fantasy novel of our age into a commanding screen adventure, one with a sense of human terror and danger and grit under its nails, one that makes Harry Potter and Luke Skywalker look like the feeble wraiths they are. (136) All of the above is a brief introduction to the different areas that I will be elaborating on, in context of The Lord of the Rings. I hope to be able to address and answer some questions that I have had regarding Middle-earth and its elements. Born on the 3rd of January, 1892 in Bloemfontein, South Africa, John Ronald Reuel Tolkien was the first child and the elder son of English parents Arthur Reuel Tolkien, a banker, and Mabel Suffield Tolkien. (Crabbe 3) Growing up sturdy and handsome, with light hair and blue eyes, Ronald (as he was then most popularly called) was always an avid reader who liked reading mostly tales and myths of American Indians and of fairy tales. For him, fantasies about dragons and ogres became more distinctive as he read. His mother introduced him to many of the great childrens books of the day like Alice in Wonderland, The Pied Piper and Treasure Island. (White 20) Under his mothers guidance he also developed a distinctive style of handwriting that stayed with him throughout his life, ultimately cultivating his talent in drawing. As Crabbe notes, his precise lettering and talent for drawing, especially landscapes, contributed to The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings when he began to illustrate his fictions. (5) In 1894, Tolkien had company as mother Mabel gave birth to a baby boy they named Hilary Arthur Reuel Tolkien. By the time Hilary was three the brothers were playing in the fields that surrounded the house, going on long adventurous walks. Without a father figure the only male company they had was each other, and not surprisingly became exceptionally close to their mother. The three Tolkiens thus shared an unusually strong bond. It is noted that the boys fantasized that a local farmer was an evil wizard who wanted to turn this peaceful English countryside into a theme park where evil wizards such as himself struggled for control of the land. The Tolkien brothers would wander into the local woods which they called strange lands to protect the innocent against the bad. (White 19) By the age of four, Tolkien entered a new phase in life. This was caused due to the family shifting homes from Bloemfontein to Birmingham, England, one of the British Empires powerhouses of the time. The wilderness and the distant horizon were replaced by an industrial jungle, terraced houses, concrete backyards and smoke of the local factories. (White 18) Tolkien was brought up mostly in a quiet English village called Sarehole. This friendly, old fashioned and pleasant pastoral village with rural inhabitants helped shaped Tolkiens vision of the Shire and its inhabitants. One of the most tragic events in Tolkiens childhood was the death of his mother, in the fall of 1904, before he was twelve. He never forgave his relatives for sending his mother to an early grave and was convinced that their rejection of his mothers conversion to the Catholic Church worsened her illness. He was sure that she died young because of this mental pain. Nonetheless, he cherished her memory and never forgot that she had introduced him to his Roman Catholic religious faith and to the study of languages, both of which, in very different ways sustained him all his life. (Stanton 3) There is a hidden message that I believe Tolkien was trying to address in The Lord of the Rings. In The Fellowship of the Ring, we read that the fellowship begins its mission on 25 December. By the third part of the volume we gather that the day Frodo succeeds in destroying the ring is 25 March. According to old English tradition we know that 25 December was the date when Jesus Christ was born, and 25 March was the date of the first Good Friday (Christs crucifixion). Tolkien maintains that there is no specific Christianity in his fiction writings but one can sense that the Christian spirit is everywhere. One of Tolkiens friend said that Tolkien was a very strict Roman Catholic, old fashioned and orthodox. As White writes, He habitually referred to Christ as Our Lord and possessed an unshakable conviction in the power of prayer, believing that he had been given stories after praying and that prayers had cured members of his family when they were ill. (208) Along with religion, his study of ancient languages made him appreciate the concept of myth and culture. With this realization, he could now start to build his own mythology to describe a fictional couture, an entire fictional universe, the roots of which lay in the languages of the different people of his fantasy realm. A further incentive to the creation of Middle-earth and its myths was given by the experience of war. During his lifetime, Tolkien witnessed the two greatest wars. For Tolkien being young, brilliant, and studying languages and books seemed like paradise, but this was shattered by the outbreak of war. He was still an Oxford undergraduate when war was declared against Germany. In 1916, during World War I, Tolkien served as a signalling officer in the battle of the Somme. (Rosebury 125-6) Life on the Somme was an endless struggle of day break attacks, night marches and death by German machine guns. Corpses lay everywhere, stinking, mutilated or disfigured, with parts completely blown away. As Crabbe states, World War I came to symbolize the difference between the old ways and the modern, between the innocent and the ironic, between youthful hope and vigor and exhausted acceptance. (15) However it was not war alone that educated Tolkien, for he had learnt at his mothers death that the world can be tragic. Tolkien writes in the Foreward section of The Lord of the Rings, One has indeed personally to come under the shadow of war to feel fully its oppressionà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦.By 1918 all but one of my close friends were dead. (7) Tolkiens generation had to pay a terrible cost during World War I, and maybe it is for this reason that The Lord of the Rings is somewhat of an anti-war story, among the many other kind of story it is. He agrees that war was an essential part of the plot but it did not hold any allegorical significance or contemporary political reference whatsoever. It is necessary to avoid, as Stanton suggests, allegorical readings of The Lord of the Rings: Mordor is not Nazi Germany, Tom Bombadils little province is not Switzerland, and so on. (5) In 1945, Tolkien described World War II as the first War of the Machines, noting that it left everyone poorer, many maimed and millions dead, where only one thing triumphant: the Machines. On the other hand, he described World War I as a war of manpower against machines where the old world was fighting against the new. (Garth 190-1) Many writers have described Tolkien as having a strong anti-modernist attitude. His son, Christopher Tolkien mentioned that, He disliked the modern world,'. (White 208) It is important to keep in mind that Tolkien was a grown man before the onset of World War I. His thoughts and ideas were products, to some extent of late Victorian culture. They were formed in an age which was more innocent than ours, and certainly more hopeful. As quoted in Hobbits, Elves, and Wizards: Exploring the Wonders and Worlds of J. R. R. Tolkiens The Lord of the Rings Tolkien emphasizes that I was born in 1892 and livedà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦.in the Shire in a pre-mechanical age. (Stanton 4) As the First World War ended and life gained normalcy, Tolkien and wife Edith Bratt were parents of a son they named John, and Tolkien secured his first civilian job as a junior editor on the Oxford English Dictionary (OED) project in 1919. A couple of years later in 1921 Tolkien accepted a position as Reader of English Language at the University of Leeds. (Crabbe 16) Soon again in 1925 Tolkien returned to Oxford, and the year that followed introduced him to another medievalist, C.S. Lewis, most famously known for writing The Chronicles of Narnia, who almost immediately became an important source of friendship, stability, and intellectual and creative stimulus for Tolkien. (Crabbe 19) Tolkien and Lewis were good friends for many years, even though they grew apart in the later years of Lewiss life. Tolkien always credited Lewiss faith in the worth of The Lord of the Rings, and he maintained that it was due to his insistence that Tolkien eventually completed the work. As fellow members of the Inklings they met weekly at a pub to drink beer, and read and criticize, among other things, one anothers unpublished works. It was these friendly, supportive gatherings that Tolkien absorbed the outlines of social organizations that comprised his sense of good in his fantasies. Throughout Tolkiens life, he was drawn into clubs: groups of men who had similar interests and talents. The all-male society of King Edward School provided Tolkien the first clubby and likeable fellowships that became an important aspect in Tolkiens life and in his fictions. However, of all the clubs to which Tolkien ever belonged, the Tea Club and Barrovian Society (TCBS) was the most important in terms of the effect on his literary imagination. (Crabbe 10) Tolkien and Lewis had a lot of common conceptions and a few differences in opinion. Both agreed that Christianity was important, though one was Anglican and the other Catholic. They agreed that myth was important, though one called it myth and other called it faery. They agreed that literary study was important, though one was literature and the other was language. They regarded news as something fit to be ignored, arguing that the only truth can be found in literature. Here, I would like to particularly honour Tolkiens form of story-telling because of his own profound faith in story as a vehicle of truth. Purtill notes that one cannot be certain about whether Tolkien would attempt to picture a life after death in fiction, but he expressed a strong dislike for Lewiss book, Letters to Malcolm, in which Lewis presents some nonfictional speculations on life after death. (133) Also, in Tolkiens work we have pure fantasy, where magic works directly by wizards and the likes, and not by means of spirits. In Lewiss fantasy however, we have a fully animistic view, where he creates disembodied spirits with some characteristics of angels and some of Neoplatonic Intelligences. (Purtill 107) Many people have made opinions or guesses concerning the meaning and motives of The Lord of the Rings. To this, Tolkien informs us that the prime motive was the desire of a story-teller to try his hand at a lengthy story that would hold the readers attention, amuse them, delight them, excite them or deeply move them. He says that he does not have any intention to put forward any inner meaning or message through the tale. In a biographical sketch of Tolkien, White notes that in order for Tolkien to create Middle-earth and its legend he needed more than language excellence. One, he needed the sort of imagination that could mould languages and transport characters through the fictional realm he created. Two, he needed to be constant with his writing, and three, he needed a reason to do it. (81) Tolkien wanted to create a sort of mythology for England since there had not been any previous mythical tale attached to the land. He was a patriot and he felt that producing and epic was not only something he could do but something he was trained to do. Tolkien identified two types of readers: the fidelis, the self-identified Christian believer, and the fainthearted which could be easily misinterpreted as the weak and timid reader. He wanted to target the latter type of reader, which he considered not as weak, but as that type of reader who has no theistic faith, or has lost what faith he or she had. Tolkien wanted to reach this group by the sheer power and grandeur of the story. (Rutledge 3) Tolkiens view of poetry was formed by his extensive knowledge of Old English literature, Latin and Greek poetry, Old Norse sagas. He wanted to adapt his medieval muse to the Victorian manner but could not find a contemporary model that sounded extravagant enough for his purposes. Therefore, The Lord of the Rings evolved as a result of his inability to adjust to the radical renewal of poetic tradition in the twentieth century. (Giddings 140) Readers approach The Lord of the Rings from different directions. Some value it as a treasure chest of imaginative languages, while others see it in terms of myth; some view it as a muted religious statement, and others view it as a modern-day version of heroic fantasy. I found that the story drew me in instantly, and I spent many hours in Middle-earth, and like I mentioned earlier, I have been back many times since. Although Tolkien has voiced his opinion on allegory saying I cordially dislike allegory in all its manifestations, and always have done since I grew old and wary enough to detect its presence (as qtd. in Shippey 161), he has in fact regarded allegory as a legitimate critical tool, a means to clarify critical stands, throughout his career. Helms uses the 1936 Beowulf lecture to explain how Tolkien attempted allegory to illustrate what he is about as critic. (109) In fact, Tolkien turned to allegory to make what deeply important personal statements about the genre were for him of fantasy. Of all the characters in The Lord of the Rings, Harvey writes that hobbits represented the archetypal pre-Industrial Revolution Englishmen with simple needs, goals, and a basic approach to life. (114) Tolkien has reacted against the idea that The Lord of the Rings is an allegory, and it is not. That is why Tolkien dismissed those who viewed this saga as an allegory of World War II. Firstly, he points out that he started work on it long before the doom of 1939 had yet come upon the world. Secondly, the relevancy of equals signs were missing. Shippey suggests that one could say that the Ring = nuclear weapons, the coalition of Rohan, Gondor and the Shire (etc.) = the Allied powers, Mordor = the Axis powers, all of which has some general plausibility. (163) Here, he goes on to question what the destruction of the Ring and the refusal to use it equal. Tolkien says that many confuse applicability with allegory, but one resides in the freedom of the reader and the other in the proposed domination of the author. (Tolkien 7) We can then see that when he thinks of allegory, he is thinking of philosophy or fiction clad as a story, in which each person and/or event stands for a specific idea/fact of the real world. It must be noted here that if used in their proper place, either advancing an argument or else constructing brief and personal fables, Tolkien accepted them readily. At the age of eighty one, after a long and productive career spent largely in literary study, writing and teaching, Tolkien died on September 2, 1973 in the English town of Bournemouth. (Stanton 3)

Corporate Evaluation Analysis – Avon Products

Table of Contents I. Company History†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. Pg. 3 II. Recent News†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 5 III. Industry Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 8 IV. SWOT Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. Pg. 15 V. Value Line Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 15 VI. Ratio Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 18 VII. Regression & Descriptive Statistics – Growth Analysis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 20 VIII. Growth Analysis, Estimates for Earnings Employed in DDM, DDM including Discount Rate, and Other Assessments of Risk†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â ‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Pg. 23 IX. Other Valuation Parameters†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 26 X. Rule #1†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Pg. 28 XI. Conclusions/Final Stock Judgment†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 31 XII. References†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢ € ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Pg. 33 XIII. Appendix†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. Pg. 35 I. Company History In general, Avon Products, Inc. is a U. S. cosmetics, perfume, jewelry, skin care, personal care and children’s products seller with markets in over 140 countries across the world and sales of $9. 9 billion worldwide. Avon Founder David H. McConnell offered women a rarity in 19th century America: a chance at financial independence. In 1886, it was practically unheard of for a woman to run her own business. Only about 5 million women in the United States were working outside the home, let alone climbing the ranks of any corporate ladder. That number accounted for just 20% of all women (Avon. com). The man behind the company for women was the son of Irish immigrants and grew up on a farm. Yet, it was this young man from rural New York, a visionary leader decades ahead of his time, who would become a pioneer in empowering women. McConnell, a bookseller-turned-perfume entrepreneur, would offer women the opportunity to create and manage their own businesses through what later became known as direct selling. David H. McConnell sold books door-to-door and gave out perfume to entice women to buy his books. His perfume proved to be much more popular than his books, so he then founded the California Perfume Company (CPC) in New York, New York. Mrs. P. F. E Albee, a 50-year old wife and mother of two, became the California Perfume Company’s first Representative. The legendary Mrs. Albee is still considered a role model for Avon Representatives today and is credited with creating the company’s system for distributing products. The California Perfume Company was incorporated on January 28, 1916 by David H. McConnell and Alexander D. Henderson (businessman) in Suffern, New York. By 1918, five million units were sold in North America, and by 1928, sales reached $2 million. In October 1939, the name was changed to Avon Products, Inc; McConnell had visited Stratford-Upon-Avon (UK) and had liked the town so much, that he renamed his company after it. The company was taken public in 1946 with OTC stock. By 1954, sales reached $55 million, and the â€Å"Avon Calling† advertising campaign was introduced, making it one of the largest and most successful advertising campaigns in history (Avon. com). In the 1960’s and 1970’s, Avon was one of Wall Street’s favorite â€Å"Nifty Fifty† stocks, a group of well-regarded, â€Å"buy and hold† blue chips that also included Xerox, Disney, and McDonald’s. These stocks helped drive the bull market of the early 1970s in the U. S. , with Avon’s stock soaring to $140. The Nifty Fifty bubble later bursts, sending U. S. stocks plunging. Avon was listed on the NYSE as AVP in 1964. By 1979, sales reached $3 billion, with one million direct sales agents. Today sales exceed $10 billion worldwide. In June 1989, Avon became the first major cosmetic company to announce a permanent end to animal testing on all Avon-manufactured products. Avon does not conduct animal testing on any of its products or raw ingredients and does not require that suppliers of raw ingredients and finished products produced for Avon conduct animal testing on our behalf. In addition to its corporate pursuits, the Avon corporation is involved in philanthropic causes. The Avon Foundation for Women, an accredited 501(c)(3) public charity, is the largest corporate-affiliated philanthropy for women in the world. Avon has been committed to helping women achieve their highest potential of economic opportunity and self-fulfillment by empowering them through scholarships and support for other forms of educational and occupational training and advancement. The Avon Foundation is currently focused on two key causes: breast cancer and domestic violence. Through 2009, Avon global philanthropy raised and donated more than $725 million worldwide for causes most important to women. Since 1992 in more than 50 countries around the globe, millions of dedicated Avon Representatives have sold special Avon cause products, raising almost $150 million to end breast cancer and domestic violence and to help in times of global emergencies. In 1999, the first woman CEO was named: Andrea Jung. In 2003, â€Å"mark. â€Å", which is targeted to younger, college-aged women, was created to help the company reach out into markets it had not previously serviced. mark. as proven to be successful in reaching a new generation of recruits, primarily young women ages 18–25, with a monthly â€Å"magalog† featuring its products. In 2008, reality star Lauren Conrad became a spokesmodel for the brand. Conrad also designed clothing and accessories for the brand. In 2010, actress Ashley Greene would replace Conrad as the spokes model for the brand. T hroughout the first decade of the new millennium, Avon began operating in numerous new markets, with heavy expansion in Central and Eastern Europe and the Caribbean Islands. Avon is now in more than 100 markets and is coined to be â€Å"the company for women†. II. Recent News AVP has a market cap of $11. 43B, operating cash flow of $702M, and consistent quarterly dividends around $0. 22 per share, making AVP a leader in personal products globally (Investment Underground). Given AVP’s positioning in the personal products industry, Avon could be a prime takeover candidate for competitors such as The Estee Lauder Company (EL) or French conglomerate L'Oreal SA (LRLCY. PK) looking to expand their reach into the direct sales portion of the personal products market. Because AVP currently has one of the lowest operating margins in the sector (11. 0%), competitors such as EL could view AVP as an attractive investment in hopes of increasing profitability. In turbulent times, people turn inward. The argument for large cap consumer staple companies is that they are familiar names that offer the necessities of daily life. Barron’s Magazine presents a list of ten companies that fit this argument. The underlying thesis is that these ten com panies offer cash flow, dividends and predictable growth. This list includes: Avon Products (AVP), Campbell Soup (CPB), Clorox (CLX), Coca Cola Enterprises (CCE), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), General Mills (GIS), Kellogg (K), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), PepsiCo (PEP), and Proctor & Gamble (PG). Are these companies really good investments for today? |Ticker |Company |Recent |Price Chg. |Dividend |EV/EBITDA |EV/SALES | | | |Price |52W |Yield | | | |AVP |Avon Products, Inc. |26. 59 |-19. 00 |3. 50 |15. 03 |1. 31 | |CPB |Campbell Soup Company |33. 50 |-4. 00 |3. 50 |13. 01 |1. 9 | |CLX |Clorox Company, The |68. 81 |7. 00 |3. 20 |17. 46 |2. 39 | |CCE |Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. |25. 81 |-5. 00 |1. 90 |16. 15 |1. 79 | |CL |Colgate-Palmolive Company |76. 95 |-9. 00 |3. 00 |12. 23 |2. 70 | |GIS |General Mills, Inc. |36. 65 |0. 00 |3. 10 |14. 90 |2. 24 | |K |Kellogg Company |54. 17 |3. 00 |3. 00 |15. 49 |2. 18 | |TAP |Molson Coors Brewing Company |43. 5 |0. 00 |2. 60 |12. 87 |3. 20 | |PEP |PepsiCo, Inc. |63. 24 |-5. 00 |3. 00 |15. 58 |2. 25 | |PG |Procter & Gamble Company, The |60. 60 |-5. 00 |3. 20 |15. 05 |2. 78 | The first item that can be noticed from the above chart is that t hese companies underperformed the S 500 significantly during the past twelve months (Sommer). This lag is not indicative of a turning point. The poor performance reflects high unemployment and consumer uncertainty. The consumer is being more selective in its discretionary spending and seeking alternate, cheaper products. The market seems to reflect this understanding. The high dividend yields provide a measure of support to these stock prices but they also reflect the lack of price appreciation. | Ticker |Company |EPS TTM |2011 EPS |2012 EPS |FCF TTM |Payout Ratio| | | | |(Est. ) |(Est. ) | | | |AVP |Avon Products, Inc. |2. 28 |2. 01 |2. 26 |-0. 03 |38. 0 | |CPB |Campbell Soup Company |2. 36 |2. 43 |2. 53 |1. 15 |47. 50 | |CLX |Clorox Company, The |5. 25 |3. 94 |4. 43 |2. 00 |41. 00 | |CCE |Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. |2. 05 |2. 04 |2. 26 |1. 44 |5. 90 | |CL |Colgate-Palmolive Company |4. 46 |5. 05 |5. 50 |2. 98 |45. 50 | |GIS |General Mills, Inc. |2. 51 |2. 48 |2. 68 |0. 60 |41. 80 | |K |Kellogg Company |5. 6 |3. 47 |3. 78 |-0. 17 |30. 20 | |TAP |Molson Coors Brewing Company |3. 81 |3. 78 |4. 04 |1. 98 |28. 30 | |PEP |PepsiCo, Inc. |3. 97 |4. 48 |4. 90 |3. 21 |47. 60 | |PG |Procter & Gamble Com pany, The |3. 84 |3. 97 |4. 36 |3. 43 |49. 00 | Each of these companies reports solid earnings over that past twelve month period. Consensus analyst estimates for both the current year and next year are less impressive. We believe the estimates reflect expectations for continued weakness from stressed consumers† (Sommers). These companies are all overpriced and have no catalyst for change. The assumption that investors can find safety by identifying sectors or themes is a dangerous one. Avon recorded feeble operating performance in the fourth quarter of 2010. The company's earnings per share plunged 13. 2% to $0. 59 from $0. 68 per share in the year-ago period. The decline was principally due to reduction in operating margin, which resulted from unfavorable product mix, rising commodity cost and a 27% sales decline in Venezuela (Zachs). Moreover, Avon ended fiscal 2010 with a long-term debt of $2,408. 6 million, reflecting a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 59%, which is substantially higher, and could negatively influence the company's credit worthiness and make it more vulnerable to the macro-economic factors and competitive pressures. Additionally, the North American market continues to remain sluggish with volume falling 14. 0% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Moreover, the company's initiatives to change the product mix and reposition the business in the U. S. arket will require significant expenditure to support increased advertising and promotional activities. This is likely to undermine Avon’s overall operating performance, moving forward. Besides, the company is expecting a mid single-digit revenue growth in fiscal 2011, which can be achieved through strong field programs coupled with an innovative. As well, call it luck; on November 08, 2010, Avon sold out its entire ownership interest (74. 67%) in Avo n Japan to TPG Capital, otherwise the scenario could have been worse for the company due to the recent crisis in Japan product pipeline (Zachs). Pulling out of the Japanese market was part of the company's 2010 decision to redouble its efforts in China. It announced the sale of its 75% stake in Avon Japan to private equity firm TPG for $90 million in late 2010. The move also was part of the beauty-products maker's plan to refocus on direct sales. (The Japanese unit typically generated more than half its revenues through direct mail. ) III. Industry Analysis (Personal Products – Cosmetics & Toiletries) Because of the wide arrange of products Avon offers, it is quite difficult to pin point one single industry. Thus, going by their primary selling products, Avon fits most accurately into the Personal Products and Cosmetics & Toiletries industries. Companies that manufacture and/or market personal care products produce cosmetics, fragrances, and razors. The personal care products industry targets many faces – from chubby newborns to 40-something near-goddesses to those newly retired and dreaming of a beachfront condo. While companies in this sector would like to cater to everyone, the industry has found potential in both the Baby Boomers and their children — the teens and ‘tweens. Called Gen Y, Boomer's teens offer an estimated $9 billion in purchasing power (Hoover’s). Leaving no demographic untouched, personal care products makers also are expanding their target markets across gender lines, marketing everything from cosmetics to hair care to men and teen boys, as well as women. With more US consumers reaching the age of 55 (33% by 2030), the industry has targeted this more-vain-than-not age segment and has logged revenue growth in skin care and hair coloring products throughout the past few years as a result. On the other end of the spectrum, the teen girl population age 12 to 19 grew from 14. 3 million in 1995 to 15. 2 million in the US in 2001 (Hoover’s). Industry beauty companies, such as Avon Products, are targeting this demographic with lifestyle brands the likes of Avon's Mark. While women have historically been a target market — primarily because women are the likely shoppers — the buying power of males is not ignored by the personal care industry. In fact, the group's buying power is eagerly sought after. Industry giants are tapping into the revenue potential of personal care products made specifically for men, illustrated by Procter & Gamble's acquisition of Gillette in October 2005 for some $57 billion (Hoover’s). Gillette represents more than razors. In the eyes of the industry, Gillette is the king of marketing to men. As the top marketer to women, Procter & Gamble has counted on its purchase of Gillette to give it the keys to the castle and enable it to become the voice to men, as well. Men offer revenue potential beyond Gillette's Mach3 and Colgate-Palmolive's Mennen brand. A Newsweek magazine poll conducted in mid-2003 revealed that more than half of men age 35 to 55 are â€Å"somewhat† satisfied with their overall appearance. This percentage reflects an increase for this age segment since Newsweek's last poll in 1996. Companies have begun educating men on the topics of sunscreen, lotions, nail care, hair color, and more. Along the way, the personal care industry has been piquing the interest of the male customer and introducing him to the profitable skin care market, as Estee Lauder has with its Aramis and Clinique brands and Beiersdorf has with its Daily Protective lotion (formerly NIVEA for Men). This trend still extends into 2008. Regardless of gender or age, customers access personal care products through a variety of venues, including grocery stores, drugstores, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, specialty retailers, and online e-tailers. Reports about personal care products sales for grocery stores and drugstores are usually prefaced with the phrase, â€Å"excluding Wal-Mart. † (Fidelity) This is a reminder that Wal-Mart Stores, as well as some warehouse clubs, present something of a wildcard to the industry. Outside the brick and mortar, personal care products makers have a polished business model for using direct-selling methods to reach target markets. Cosmetics companies have gained sales advantages — with little or no overhead — by letting their customers sample products at home parties. Direct sellers, such as Avon Products, Mary Kay, and Amway, have long relied on this concept. UK-based natural personal care retailer The Body Shop has tested the US waters by selling through independent consultants and continues to sell in the US after seeing positive results. No matter where a company in the personal care products industry identifies its untapped growth potential — be it in the teenage girls or mid-life males markets — a few of the same factors apply. Staying competitive means implementing innovation fueled by billions of dollars in R&D and a strategy of quick-to-market products. Reaching far and reaching fast are significant parts of the battle. However, expanding as wide as the tentacles of Wal-Mart and maintaining brand recognition and loyalty in a sea of private labels may prove to be the ultimate challenges. Fidelity) [pic] Competitors: Avon faces competition from a variety of products and product lines both nationally and globally. The beauty and beauty-related products industry is extremely competitive and the number of competitors and degree of competition in this industry varies extensively from country to country. Globally, Avon competes against products sold to consumers by other direct-selling and direct-sales co mpanies and through the Internet and against products sold through the mass market and prestige retail channels. The major competitors of the company are L'Oreal SA (LRLCY. PK) and Revlon Inc. (NYSE: REV). Competition from mass merchandisers and specialty and department stores has spurred Avon to not only spend many millions on R&D but set aside just as much — $100 million — to support the launch of a global ad campaign. Avon anticipates driving additional growth based on fragrances (Today, Tomorrow, Always) and skin care (Anew anti-aging) sales. To that end, it signed on award-winning singer Fergie to develop a signature fragrance, which was unveiled in 2010. Previous partnerships have involved French designer Emanuel Ungaro for two fragrances (U by Ungaro for Her and U by Ungaro for Him) and the New York Yankees' Derek Jeter for â€Å"Driven† men's fragrance and a personal grooming line of products. (Yahoo! Finance) [pic] Revlon (REV) is engaged in the production, marketing and selling of an array of cosmetics, hair color, beauty tools, anti-perspirants/deodorants, fragrances, skincare and other beauty care products. The company primarily operates in North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. It is headquartered in New York City, New York and employs 4,800 people. Revlon's global brand name, product quality and marketing experience have enabled it to create one of the strongest consumer brand franchises in the world. Revlon’s brand equity among the consumers enabled the company to garner 12. 7% of the US mass retail color cosmetics market; 9. 7% of the hair color market; 4. 6% of the perspirants/deodorants market; and 21% of the beauty tools market, during 2009 (Revlon). Strong brand image of the company facilitates customer recall and allows Revlon to penetrate new markets as well as consolidate its presence in the existing ones. The company recorded revenues of $1,295. 9 million during the financial year ended December 2009 (FY2009), a decrease of 3. 8% as compared to 2008. The decline in revenues was driven by lower net sales of Revlon and Almay color cosmetics and some of the other beauty care products. The operating profit of the company was $170. 8 million in FY2009, an increase of 10. 2% over 2008. The net profit was $48. 8 million in FY2009, a decrease of 15. 7% as compared to 2008 (Revlon). L'Oreal (LRLCY. PK) is one of the largest cosmetic companies in the world. It produces and markets a range of make-up, perfume, hair and skin care products in over 130 countries. It is headquartered in Clichy, France and employs 64,600 people. Since its inception about 100 years ago, the company has developed a strong brand portfolio of 23 international brands. The company's products are sold under well-known brands such as L'Oreal Paris, Garnier, Maybelline, SoftSheen Carson, CCB Paris, L'Oreal Professional, Kerastase, Redken, Matrix, Mizani, Lancome, Biotherm, Helena Rubinstein, Kiehl's, Shu Uemura,and Giorgio Armani. These brands are available through a range of distribution channels ranging from mass market, to selective distribution including hair salons, pharmacies/drugstores and a network of directly owned stores and franchises. Strong brand portfolio lends better visibility and presence in all distribution channels and enables L’Oreal to reach a large customer base, thereby increasing its market penetration opportunities. L'Oreal operates through three business divisions: cosmetics, the Body Shop, and dermatology. The Body Shop division operates a chain of 2,550 stores in 63 countries worldwide specializing in skin and hair care products made from natural ingredients. The company recorded revenues of E17,472. 6 million ($24,367. 8 million) during the financial year ended December 2009 (FY2009), a decrease of 0. 4% compared with 2008. The operating profit of the company was E2,577. 6 million ($3,594. 8 million) in FY2009, a decrease of 5. 4% compared with 2008. The net profit was E1,792. 2 million ($2,499. 5 million) in FY2009, a decrease of 8% compared with 2008 (L’oreal). (Fidelity) [pic] IV. SWOT Strengths |Weaknesses | | | | |Diverse geographic presence enhances |Chinese operations marred with controversy | |scale of operations and mitigates local market risks |and poor performance | | | | |Low cost business model of direct selling |Lack of clear-focus and strategy for non-beauty products | | | | |Strong brand equity |Declining operating margins | |Opportunities |Threats | | | | |Restructuring initiatives for organizational Competitive environment in the global | |Effectiveness |cosmetics industry | | | | |Re-branding strategy to drive consumer |Company’s revenues tied to the | |Demand |performance of the sales representatives | | | | |Emerging markets enhances the scope of |A diversified global operation exposes Avon to currency fluctuation | |growth for the Avon’s value cosmetic |risks | |products | | V. Value Line Analysis On December 24, 2010, Jerome H. Kaplan, a Value Line analyst, points out that investors are not thrilled about Avon’s mediocre progress. The company’s stock price has declined in the last three months. Avon continues to struggle a bit in the U. S. and Chinese markets as is reflected in September-quarter earnings, as well as deteriorating growth in the vital markets of Brazil and Russia. Kaplan states, â€Å"Long-term emerging market-oriented investors should consider this untimely stock. Avon could be viewed as the equivalent of a diversified portfolio in fast-growing regions, such as Latin America, Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe. (Value Line) Improves margins, profits, and share price will most likely be a result of the growth of these markets by 2013-2015, in addition to savings of over one billion dollars by 2012-2013 from programs reducing Avon’s cost structure. When looking at the Value Line, we notice a Safety rating of 3. A Safet y rating is another way to measure the company’s risk or financial strength. It is measured from 1 to 5, with 1 being the highest and best rating indicating the company has a less likely chance of becoming bankrupt and are less volatile. In Avon’s case, a 3 may be interpreted as being unpredictable. If the score is lowered to a 4 or 5, the greater the short-term price movements the stock may experience. Safety ranks work better than Beta when there is a break in the market (when the market is going down). Arguably the most important investment recommendation found on Value Line is the Timeliness rating. The scale is also from 1 to 5 with again 1 being the most desirable rating which reflects the top 100 stocks within Value Line’s 1,700 stocks. Investors typically are encouraged to buy a portfolio of stocks across six or more industries with a ranking of 1 for Timeliness. After some time, investors are encouraged to keep an eye on this rating and when it falls to a 4 or 5 rating that stock should be sold, as is the case with Avon with a Timeliness rating of 4 (Money-Zine). With a financial strength of a B++, Avon is considered a company that would most likely survive a depression. This means the company has sufficient liquidity to payout their dividends or increase how much they give as dividends. When income is the primary consideration, a strong balance sheet provides greater assurance that a dividend can be maintained (Valueline). Proper financing ensures stockholders that operations can be expanded without having to disperse a portion of the earnings to bank or bondholders. The stock price stability (SPS) is the standard deviation of weekly stock prices over the last five years. It is ranked from 5 to 100 and in increments of 5. A ranking of 100 reflects the lowest standard deviation, which reflects the greatest stability attainable, while 5 indicated the largest standard deviation and the least stability. Price stability along with the company’s financial strength rating determines a stock’s Safety ranking. Avon has a price stability of 75 which puts them not too far from the top and would be considered to be on the lower side of good stability. The price growth persistency (PGP) of a stock is measured in the same format as the stock price stability. A stock that is 100 probably beat the index every year of the last 10 years. Avon’s PGP rating is 45, which is on the low side of average. This measurement rewards this fund for the consistency with which it outperforms the broader universe if equity offerings over an extended period of time. Earnings predictability for Avon is 65. This rating provides a measure of the reliability of an earnings forecast. Ratings with a 100 are noted as the â€Å"best fit† on the regression line, meaning they have a high consistency of earnings. Predictability is based upon the stability of year-to year comparisons, with recent years being weighted more heavily than earlier ones. Reliable forecasts are close to 100 and the least are close to lowest of 5. Being that Avon falls around the middle of these two extremes, it can be said that the company is somewhat reliable and other factors should be considered in conjunction. A stock's beta is a measure of a particular stock's price volatility and risk relative to a broader measure of stock price movements such as a market index (Money-Zine). Many stock beta calculations are performed relative to the S 500; however, the Value Line Beta calculation uses the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index. The most important fact to point out is that the beta measures a stock’s movement in price. If a stock has a beta of 1. 0 or above, which is the value of the market beta, it will experience more movement either up or down relative to the index. In comparison, a stock with a beta of less than 1. 0 is considered less risky and stable with smaller price fluctuations. According to Value Line, Avon has a beta of . 5 right under the market beta, which implies that this stock is not risky and will most likely not experience any drastic changes in its price. The Technical ranking of a stock is almost similar to that of its Timeliness ranking except for the fact th at the Technical ranking does not take into consideration earnings per share projections, only the opportunity for a stock’s price appreciation. With a Technical ranking of 2, Avon, according to Value Line, should be purchased since this rating indicates Avon has short-term capital gains, in the three to six month timeframe (Money-Zine). The plowback method is sometimes used to calculate a company’s earnings after dividends have been paid out. A high rate indicates that a company pays less in dividends and thus reinvests more of its earnings into the company. Investors tend to prefer a lower plowback ratio in a slow-growing company and a higher one in a fast-growing company. Whether or not this is desirable depends on the rate of growth. The plowback rate is calculated using the following formula: ROE x (1 – Payout Ratio (Dividends per share/Earnings per share)). Plugging in the Value Line figures for Avon the result is, . 492 x (1 – (. 84/1. 45)) = . 207 = 20. 7%. To calculate Avon’s free cash flow we need the following = per share earnings + cash flow from operations – required dividends – capital spending. Thus, 1. 45 + . 44 – . 84 – . 69 = $0. 36. VI. Ratio Analysis Profitability |12/31/2010 | |12/31/2009 | |12/31/2008 | |12/31/2007 | |Ratios | | | | | | | | |2006 |5. 5 |   |1. 75 |   |6. 26 |   |60. 28 | |2007 |5. 4 | |1. 81 | |7. 23 | |70. 67 | |2008 |8. 3 |   |1. 81 |   |8. 38 |   |125. 92 | |2009 |6. 1 | |1. 61 | |6. 4 | |64. 27 | |2010 |5. 9 |   |1. 48 |   |4. 74 |   |41. 4 | According to this DuPont Analysis for Avon, all three sectors show inconsistencies and overall fluctuations up and down. In 2008, the company is at its highest level but dramatically goes down in all sectors the year following and continues to decline. Overall, efficiency in all sectors are not very stable. The company has had its off and on days throughout the years without any trend or consistency. Avon needs to control their operations and cost efficiency more closely. VII. Regression & Descriptive Statistics – Growth Analysis Using the data figures for Avon provided through Value Line from 2002 to 2009, a descriptive analysis and linear regression were produced for SPS, Shares, EPS, CF, DIV, ROE, PE, BV, FCF, OM, RTC and NPM (Appendix). A more comprehensive analysis was done for EPS, FCF, PE, and ROE. Included in each financial variable analysis is the calculation of normalized data points for the 7th and 8th periods, which are years 2008 and 2009, respectively. Within this additional analysis the Current to Normalized (CNE) was also calculated, and each resulting figure was compared to the normal expected range of . 85 – 1. 15. In the last step of this additional analysis, growth rate and variability figures were also produced. *Please Note: the ROE figures for the years of 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2008 were noted as â€Å"NMF† on Value Line, thus the figures used in the analysis were calculated using the net income after tax from the income statement and the shareholder’s equity from the balance sheet. Looking at the summary of the results for these four financial variables in the chart given below, only the CNE of EPS, which is . 93 falls within the normal range of . 85 – 1. 15, which means that in the remaining three areas of FCF, PE, and ROE, Avon is operating below the expected and acceptable range. These below average results signify that the normalized points produced are not adequate enough to rely on to calculate appropriate growth rates. As can be seen also in the summary, there is a positive growth rate in both EPS and ROE, but negative in both FCF and PE. ROE may be at a significant high growth rate because of the out of norm results that were calculated for the years of 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2008 as mentioned above. In each of these particular years, shareholders equity was low in comparison to net income (negative in 2002) which resulted in abnormal figures Value Line did not wish to indicate. FCF has a negative growth rate since in 2005 it was at an unsustainable figure of 1. 07 and then drastically declined to . 34 the following year and even lower to . 25 in 2007. This drastic change coupled with another fluctuating high and low between 2008 and 2009 are factors for this negative growth rate. In relation, although not as drastic, for PE results more visibly decline in the last two periods of 2008 and 2009. |Avon Products, Inc Financial Variables Analysis | | | |EPS |ROE |FCF |PE | |Normalized 8th Period | |$1. 55 |$156. 38 |$0. 46 |$22. 18 | | | |   |   |   |   | |Normalized 7th Period | |$1. 51 |$121. 35 |$0. 52 |$22. 7 | | | |   |   |   |   | |Current to Normalized | |0. 93 |0. 31 |0. 79 |0. 84 | | | |   |   |   |   | |Growth Rate | |3. 09% |28. 87% |-12. 80% |-0. 88% | Another aspect of the descriptive and regression analysis that is important to point out are the R-squared and skewness. R-squared, also known as the coefficient of variation, is helpful in providing a measure of how well future outcomes are likely to be predicted by the model. The values for R-squared range from 0 to 1: the closer to 1 the results are, the better the â€Å"fit’ of the predicted values and the more realistic or reliable they are. R-squared can also be explained as the strength of the relationship between time and the variable. For all four financial variables, the R-squared figures range from . 01-. 25, which are indicative of weak relationships between time and each of these variables. None of the data points for these variables are strong measures of how well the regression line approximates the real data points. Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution of a real-valued variable (Wikipedia. com). The results are usually either positive or negative, or in some instances undefined. A negative skew in characterized and having the mass distribution concentrated on the right of the figure or in most recent years and has relatively few low values. A positive skew has a mass distribution concentrated on the left o the figure or in earlier years and has relatively few high values. For both EPS and PE, the skewness is positive in contrast to ROE and FCF which are both negative. Growth for EPS and PE both took place in recent years while growth for ROE and FCF took place in earlier years. |Avon Products, Inc Financial Variables Analysis | | | |EPS |ROE |FCF |PE | |R-Squared | |0. 1041 |0. 2092 |0. 2527 |0. 101 | | | |   |   |   |   | |Skewness | |1. 0284 |-2. 5446 |-0. 3754 |0. 8432 | For the remaining financial variables, the same analysis was produced. Interestingly enough, the CNE for these variables fall within the normal expected range of . 85 – 1. 15, except for BV which is slightly over at 1. 18. These figures range from . 91 – 1. 04. The growth rates for DIV, CF, BV and SPS are positive, but are negative for Shares, OM, NPM and RTC. The negative growth rate of Shares means that the company is buying back their stock. For R-squared the only strong relationships between time and that variable were DIV at . 584, Shares at . 8963 and SPS at . 9632. The R-squares for BV and RTC are relatively moderate. Skewness for DIV, BV, OM and NPM are negative with growth occurring in earlier prior years and skewness for CF, Shares, SPS and RTC were positive with growth occurring in the latter years. |Avon Products, Inc Financial Variables Analysis | | | | | |EPS 2009 |1. 45 | | | | | |Growth Rate = |3. 9% | | | | | |Payout Ratio = |36% | | | | | |Discount Rate = |7. 10% | | | | |Avon Projections 2010-2019 | | |Period |Years |EPS |DIV |PV | |1 |2010 |1. 49 |0. 54 |$0. 50 | |2 |2011 |1. 54 |0. 55 |$0. 48 | |3 |2012 |1. 59 |0. 57 |$0. 47 | |4 |2013 |1. 64 |0. 59 |$0. 45 | |5 |2014 |1. 69 |0. 61 |$0. 3 | |6 |2015 |1. 74 |0. 63 |$0. 42 | |7 |2016 |1. 79 |0. 65 |$0. 40 | |8 |2017 |1. 85 |0. 67 |$0. 38 | |9 |2018 |1. 91 |0. 69 |$0. 37 | |10 |2019 |1. 97 |0. 71 |$0. 36 | |PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: |$4. 26 | Terminal Value The 2019 stock price calculated reflects the value of all future dividends or cash flows in perpetuity. In order to determine the 2019 stock price the following will be needed: Because when using the above process the discount rate is assumed and one of the biggest variables that may fluctuate and thus cause the result to differ, other methods should also be considered when doing a company stock price valuation. One other such popular method is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) The main purpose of this model is to explain the relationship between risk and the expected return that a stock may yield and is used in the pricing of risky securities (Investopedia). The following formula is used in the calculation of CAPM: o CAPM = Rf + (a (Rm – Rf) Rf = Risk-free rate (Treasury bond rate) assumed at 5% o Rm = Expected market return assumed at 12% o (a = Beta of the security; from Avon’s Value Line beta is . 95 Thus, when using this CAPM formula to calculate the discount rate, the following result is returned: CAPM = . 05 + . 95 (. 12 â⠂¬â€œ . 05) = . 1165 = 11. 65% discount rate (Ke). This new discount rate of 11. 65% is now inputted into the dividends projections table done previously. The new table is shown below with a PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years now at a reduced amount of $3. 45. The new terminal value also decreases to $16. 87 as well as the PV of this 2019 stock price to $5. 60. The stock remains overvalued with an intrinsic value of $9. 06 compared to the current price of $29. 22. The price-to-intrinsic is now 3. 23. |Variables used to determine PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: | | | |EPS 2009 |1. 45 | | | | | | |Growth Rate = |3. 09% | | | | | | |Payout Ratio = |36% | | | | | | |Discount Rate = |11. 5% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |Avon Projections 2010-2019 | | | | |Period |Years |EPS |DIV |PV | | | |2 |2011 |1. 54 |0. 55 |$0. 45 | | | |3 |2012 |1. 59 |0. 57 |$0. 41 | | | |4 |2013 |1. 64 |0. 59 |$0. 38 | | | |5 |2014 |1. 69 |0. 61 |$0. 35 | | | |6 |2015 |1. 4 |0. 63 |$0. 32 | | | |7 |2016 |1. 79 |0. 65 |$0. 30 | | | |8 |2017 |1. 85 |0. 67 |$0. 28 | | | |9 |2018 |1. 91 |0. 69 |$0. 25 | | | |10 |2019 |1. 97 |0. 71 |$0. 24 | | | |PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: |$3. 45 | | The only way that Avon stock would be considered undervalued would be at a discount rate of about 4. 9% or below as shown in the table below. |Variables used to determine PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: | | | |EPS 2009 |1. 45 | | | | | | |Growth Rate = |3. 09% | | | | | | |Payout Ratio = |36% | | | | | | |Discount Rate = |4. 0% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |Avon Projections 2010-2019 | | | | |Period |Years |EPS |DIV |PV | | | |2 |2011 |1. 54 |0. 55 |$0. 50 | | | |3 |2012 |1. 59 |0. 57 |$0. 50 | | | |4 |2013 |1. 64 |0. 59 |$0. 9 | | | |5 |2014 |1. 69 |0. 61 |$0. 48 | | | |6 |2015 |1. 74 |0. 63 |$0. 47 | | | |7 |2016 |1. 79 |0. 65 |$0. 46 | | | |8 |2017 |1. 85 |0. 67 |$0. 45 | | | |9 |2018 |1. 91 |0. 69 |$0. 45 | | | |10 |2019 |1. 7 |0. 71 |$0. 44 | | | |PV total of dividend payout for the next 10 years: |$4. 75 | | X. Rule #1 The Four M’s †¢ Meaning †¢ Moat †¢ Management †¢ Margin of Safety (Sticker Price) Does the business have meaning to you? Since my tender age of 4, I remember going door-to-door with my mother distributing Avon brochures and samples. Not only was she a single mother at the time, but she also went to school and worked another part-time job. My mother eventually left her part-time job and made Avon her full-time career. She now has 25 years of selling Avon and making a living out of it. My step-father also quit his full-time job and dedicated his time to helping my mother out with the business. My whole life I have seen my mother work her hardest to give me anything and everything she could to raise me and get me to where I am now and she could not have accomplished that if it weren’t for her loyal commitment to Avon Products. She built her business from the bottom up just like any other Avon representative. She now works from home and has all her clients come to her. My mother has always told me that she eventually wants to hand over the business to me and I have taken this opportunity in Finance class to learn more in-depth about the company and what it offers not only as a business owner but also as an investor. Ironically enough, just about a month ago my mother showed interest in investing in the company (yes, after 25 years! ) and asked me about whether she should and if so how much she should invest. This evaluation project gave me even more reason to choose Avon Products, Inc as my chosen company of interest. Does the business have a wide Moat? Or in other words, is the company’s future predictable? Avon has been in existence almost 100 years, 95 to be exact. It has had an exciting development from start to present going from being solely in the perfume/cosmetics market to expanding their products to include an array interests from kids toys to men’s sports watches. They have captured a competitive advantage from the beginning starting off as the first to introduce direct selling and now being a well renown beauty global entity; they have indeed establishes a good name for themselves. Avon continues to do extensive research to keep up to par with their different markets and products and continuously strives to improve what they already have and produce new products. Many companies have hence since followed in Avon’s footsteps, realizing the success Avon has had with focusing on interpersonal sales and customer service. Avon has a well-established name and reputation and many customers have been loyal since their early years. The Management Ever since the beginning up until 2001, Avon has had male CEO’s. Some find that a bit peculiar being that Avon prides itself on being â€Å"the Company for Women†. Let’s keep in mind though the history of this company as mentioned in the first part, Avon was created by a man by accident perhaps, but definitely with good intentions. As of 2001, the new CEO, Andrea Jung, has brought new hope and meaning to the company. Since her leadership started the company has revolutionized into a new identity with Representatives truly feeling and living the motto of the company. Both customers and Representatives have more confidence in the company and it has portrayed overall both in the financial and operational functions of the company. Safety of Margin (Sticker Price) On Rule #1’s website www. ruleoneinvestor. com, Phil Town, provides various calculators that aid in the decision to buy or not buy a particular stock by inputting various company figures to produce the company’s true value. Step 1 Data Input: Current EPS: 1. 45 # Years: 10 EPS Growth Rate: 13% Step 1 Result: Future EPS = $4. 92 Step 2 Calculate Future Value Data Input: Future EPS: $4. 92 Future PE: 18 Step 2 Results: Future Value = $88. 56 Step 3 Calculate Sticker Price Data Input: Future Value/Share: $88. 56 Min Acceptable ROI: 15% # Years: 10 Step 3 Results: Sticker Price: $21. 89 Step 4 Calculate Margin of Safety Data Input: Sticker Price: $21. 89 Step 4 Results: Margin of Safety: $10. 95 Overall Results: $21. 89 ; $29. 22 (Current Price) = Stock is Overvalued = Sell/Not Buy XI. Conclusions /Final Stock Judgment Based on all the analysis previously set forth here, the best recommendation for an investor would be not to buy Avon stock or to sell their Avon stock if they currently hold interest in the company. Finding that the intrinsic value of the company using two separate methods (AAA bond rate & CAPM) both return a valuation that Avon’s current stock price is undervalued, would understandably be sufficient to determine that it would not be the best of choices to invest in the company; at least for the current time. The difficulty as well in trying to formulate a regression analysis for ROE also points to the company’s weaknesses since shareholder’s equity has not shown a constant, positive performance and even at times negative. Income generation for stockholders is not quite strong and would require further, long-term watch if an investor has a personal interest in the company to be able to invest at a later time when the value of the current stock is really what it is worth. Furthermore, recent news indicates it is not the greatest time for Avon in terms of earnings as they have spent a great deal on advertising. Getting out of the Japanese market may have been the most perfectly timed move they have made. Although Avon is currently not seen as one of the strongest companies to invest in at the moment, reviews have said not to leave Avon behind for the future. They are slowly regaining momentum and being that their beta of . 95 is still below the market’s beta of 1. 0, it is not one of the riskiest out there. Also, it must be reminded that with a good Technical ranking of 2, Avon has short-term capital gains, in the three to six month timeframe. At a financial strength of a B++, the company is still in good shape and can most likely survive a depression better than other companies. The company has sufficient liquidity to payout their dividends or increase how much they give as dividends. Investors should still proceed with caution if even in the future the company still maintains a Safety rating of 3 and a Timeliness rating of 4 as these ratings do not give the company enough leverage to be deemed financially reliable. In addition, with a Price Growth Predictability (PGP) of 45, Stock Price Stability (SPS) of 75, and an Earnings Predictability of 65, the company does not perform more than average in all of these areas meaning they don’t really beat the index, they are somewhat stable, and they have an average consistency of earnings. Overall, all of the above inconsistencies and especially the overvalue of the current stock price, will not lead to satisfactory returns. Perhaps in the near future the tables will turn as the company does have many opportunities and room for slow growth, but it will require a watchful eye. Avon is a trusted company with a rich history, especially among women, so there is much possibility of vast improvement and capabilities of big interest to investors if the company is more observant with their financial movement and take care of their shareholders. XII. References Avon Products, Inc. Avon. com. 2011. 2 April 2011 Datamonitor. Business Source Premier. 7 June 2010. 3 April 2011 Fidelity. Fidelity. com. 2011. 8 April 2011 Hoover’s Inc. LexisNexis Academic. 8 April 2011. 8 April 2011 Investment Underground. Seeking Alpha. 21 March 2011. 2 April 2011 Investopedia. Investopedia. com. 2011. 6 April 2011 Kaplan, Jerome H. Value Line. 2011. 2 April 2011 L’Oreal. Loreal. com. 2011. 6 April 2011 Money-Zine. Money-Zine. com. 2011. 4 April 2011 Revlon. Revlon. com. 2011. 6 April 2011 Roberts, Andrew. Bloomberg. 17 March 2011. 2 April 2011 Sommer, Ron. Seeking Alpha. 21 March 2011. 2 April 2011 Town, Phil. Rule #1: The Simple Strategy for Successful Investing in only 15 Minutes a Week. 2011. 9 April 2011 Wikipedia. Wikipedia. com. 2011. 6 April 2011 Zachs. Yahoo! Finance. 16 March 2011. 2 April 2011 XIII. Appendix [pic][pic] [pic] ———————– Corporate Valuation: Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE:AVP) F

What You Have to Know About Philosophy of Education Essay Samples

What You Have to Know About Philosophy of Education Essay Samples It should state your purpose of education and many ideas you've got about how to reach that objective. It is advised that the very best approach ought to be positive as opposed to negative. An individual who is engaged in the study of philosophy is known as a philosopher. Just like any thriving profession, there has to be a strong foundation on which to build upon. Grace isn't a commodity and shouldn't be thought of as so. Mason's philosophy of education is most likely best summarized by the principles given at the start of every one of her books. In america of America philosophy isn't generally taught at pre-college level. There aren't any hard-and-fast rules about which activities can be reduced to routine. This may choose the type of standardized assessments or evaluations. An educational philosophy statement isn't only a once-and-done exercise. Because then there'll be no surprises come appraisal time. Moreover, one ought to write an introduction that offers the reader a reason to continue with the remainder of the paper. So perhaps the notion of squeezing every previous pip from the proverbial orange is fantastic for a pupil's long-term life chances. Employing different writing utensils show the creativity of the kid and based on which one they desire to use expresses the child in a special way. In that case please get in contact. A school cannot anticipate each child to execute identically in the exact fashion. Children learn to create choices and to be accountable for them. They learn by doing, so the child has a better understanding of what is being taught. They need to have life experiences, and be able to relate what they are learning to the real world, so that the subject matter has relevance. Ibn Sina wrote that children ought to be sent to a maktab school from the time of 6 and be taught primary education till they get to the age of 14. All this begins as young as the kindergarten age level and we cannot look past this reality. The younger students love when they believe they are responsible for something, in addition, it can assist their self-esteem knowing they are doing something important. Knowing the potential causes of disciplinary issues, the teacher ought to endeavor to eliminate them. This kind of essay also explores the objectives and motivations of a teacher along with how one approaches education so as to teach others. An individual should likewise not compose a thesis that's evident or a simple fact. This enables the student to experience first hand the different facets of the subject they need to learn. An individual who is engaged in the study of sociology is known as a sociologist. Extra-curricular activities, which you may be prepared to sponsor or coach, could be listed on most applications. People like you're the people who help students choose unique professions and identities. There are a lot of different countries which make a totally free education system through college work in their opinion. If you're going to be a teacher later on, or work with kids in any other way, it'll be invaluable that you read more on the topic of different educational philosophies. Second, you'll want to outline the methods by which you will reach your teaching objectives. It's a philosophy that promotes education directed at helping students to develop the sort of problem solving skills that will permit them to function successfully in a competitive society. Engaging constructivist methods in your teaching drives the students to make an active part in education. Innovative teaching is an indispensable portion of my scholarly aims. Firstly, there's the goal of attaining the greatest grades as the principal pursuit of an education. Thus, there's a wide selection of courses for students pursuing philosophy. Before implementing any social policies, a particular quantity of knowledge about the society is vital. In the same style, you're likely to be missed while teaching if a particular path isn't decided.

Online Dating Services and Mister Wrong Essay - 574 Words

As a happily pre-engaged woman, with a pre-engagement ring, I have no reason to scan the listings of the ubiquitous dating services on the Web. Yet, ever since I saw the ad, Get Your Flirt On!, curiosity has gotten the better of me. I spend most of my time in search of eligible men, but I also search for eligible women. When I first looked at the men in my zip code, I told myself that I was looking for matches for my friends. But in truth I cannot think of a faster way to lose my single friends than telling them I have been looking for their perfect match online. So I admit it. I like to see who is available even though I am not. A lot of the men are obviously Mister Wrong. Take the man who says he prefers thin, athletic women and†¦show more content†¦I give them credit for daring something I would not, but I still would not have dinner with them. The ones who write, well Im kinda new at this but thought I should give it a shot, are not very goal-oriented. Those who write, I believe in magic, do you? make me squirm in my chair. And the ones who say, I am a student in the school of life make me wonder, arent we all? Some of the men have potential. The man who says he looks like Ernest Hemingway but does not have the sexual hang-ups might be worth a shot if he werent three decades my senior. And the one who said Im a bad dancer, but a good listener sounds promising. But still, on the whole these men remind me of how happy I am to be a pre-engaged woman. When I look at all the frogs I might have had to kiss, I am glad for my prince, even if he is from a 12-year-old fairytale that is very familiar. When I finish surveying the men in a given zip code, I look at the women in the same zip code to see if I can match them up. The man who says he expects breakfast in bed on the first date would be a good match for the woman wearing a leopard-print halter and posing provocatively. The practicing ChristiansShow MoreRelatedEssay on Fall of Asclepius95354 Words   |  382 Pagesthe infested areas around the world. There was problem about fleeing from infested areas. Everywhere was infested. There was no where anyone could go without encountering the walking plague. You know that phrase War is Hell? Well... its dead wrong. War at least has some organization to it. What was faced in the last days... by last days I mean the last days of civilization not life; itself. What was faced was hell. Everyone went ape shit insane. Everyone was killing and raping each other into